Originally Broadcast April 12, 1997 Last Revised June 29, 2002

by

Daniel H. Harris, Ph.D.

     Is the universe hospitable, or is it hazardous? Is life on Earth secure, or is life highly vulnerible? Are there invisible influences in the universe? Could it be that there is a God who is in charge of the universe through influences so subtle they go unnoticed? This INFINITY will answer these important questions.

     There are some dangers in our Milky Way Galaxy, and in our Solar System, which threaten widespread destruction. These represent ultimate hazards, and ultimate uncertainty. They even threaten the survival of life on Earth.

A. The Risk of Exploding Stars.

     In galaxies across the universe stars are exploding. An exploding star, is called a supernova. About 200 supernovae/year are reported in galaxies examined by amateur and professional astronomers [for more see Note 1].
     If a supernova were to explode within a distance of about fifty light years; that is, about ten times the distance to the nearest star; then there is a good probability that nearly all life on Earth would be destroyed by a shower or high energy radiation and cosmic rays from the supernova. All it takes is one close supernova, and we are history. Throughout our Milky Way Galaxy supernova explosions occur at a rate of about two per century. [see Ref.1 p89 & p107]

B. Supernova 1987A: A Good Example.

     In February, 1987, a supernova which became known as SN1987a, became visible from the southern hemisphere in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a nearby companion galaxy to our Milky Way. This was the first supernova explosion visible to the naked eye since 1604. [Most supernovae in our Milky Way Galaxy are not seen from Earth because interstellar dust blocks our view of much of the galaxy.] The spectrum [light pread into a rianbow of colorsb] of the SN1987a, and the rate at which its brightness dropped from its maximum brightness, showed it was a Type II supernova [for more on SN1987a, see Note 2].
     According to the best theory of astronomers in 1987, the stars which produce Type II supernovae, like SN1987a, were supposed to be red super-giant stars. But observations showed that the star which exploded was not a red super-giant star, instead it was a blue super-giant star, causing some astronomers to question the accuracy of the theory of Type II supernovae.
     Because most supernovae are seen in distant galaxies, the stars which give rise to supernovae are far too faint to be seen before they brighten in the supernova explosion. As a consequence, only one supernova star was seen with confidence before it exploded, the star that gave rise to SN1987a (Ref. 1, p89). So we have only one example to go on in the study of pre-supernova stars. Not a large data base! Therefore, at present we have no certain knowledge of which kinds of stars are about to explode. To have any idea of which stars might explode we must rely on uncertain theory [remember the best theory was wrong about the most basic fact, the color of the star]. So we don't really know which stars are ready to explode.

     [It is suspected that Type Ia supernovae may arise from White Dwarf stars in binary systems, and that Type II supernovae may arise from very luminous and massive super-giant stars; but there is a considerable hole in our understanding, because there is presently no accepted theory of which stars become Type Ib and Ic supernovae, tow other types of supernovae.]

C. An Explosion Without Warning!

     Without solid knowledge of which kinds or stars can explode, we have no way of knowing whether there is a nearby star ready to explode. There could be a bomb ready to go off right next door. And if it were ready to explode, there would be no warning; because the light coming from a star's surface doesn't tell us what is about to happen deep inside.  [According to recognized astronomical theory, as the Sun orbits the center of our Milky Way Galaxy, passing though spiral arms, there should be on average about one close supernova explosion every 20 million years (See Calculation 1). And all it takes is one such close supernova explosion to wipe out life on Earth. And since the Earth has allegedly had life on it for over 3 billion years, we can very crudely estimate that life should have been wiped out more than a hundred times already. Even if a close supernova occurred only once every time the Sun orbits the galaxy (every 250 million yrs), there should have been at least ten such events since life allegedly arose 3 billion years ago. So why does life persist, unless the Earth is much younger than evolutionist scientists suppose? (see INFINITY #7, #9, & #11)]

D. The Risk of Asteroid and Comet Impacts.

     Our solar system has an abundance of metallic and rock bodies called asteroids, and an abundance of icy bodies called comets. And both kinds of bodies can be a threat to Earth. These bodies travel through the Solar System at speeds of many miles per second [10 miles/sec = 36,000 miles/hr] relative to Earth. And if one of these bodies comes calling, then the Earth's gravity gives speeds up the body as it falls to Earth. Typical impact speeds range from 7 miles/sec [11km/sec] to as much as 50 miles./sec [80 km/sec].

E. A Famous Example: Meteor Crater.

     Meteor Crater, in northern Arizona, which is almost a mile in diameter, was blasted when a piece of iron and nickel with a mass of about 300,000 tones, about the size of a large house, slammed into the earth, at a speed estimated to be about 10 miles/second [Ref. 2, p236]. At such high speeds an impacting object penetrates the ground faster than the speed of sound in rock, so the result is a high temperature shock wave and an explosion with vaporizes both rock and metal. The explosion at Meteor Crater was equivalent to perhaps a ten megaton Hydrogen bomb [Ref. 3, p317 and Calculation 2]. #9;Even though geologists estimated that the Meteor Crater impact -- explosion occurred more than twenty thousand years ago [Ref. 2, p213, and Ref. 3, p316, Table 10-4], the native americans of northern Arizona, which are allegedly recent arrivals, have a legend that their ancestors witnessed the impact, the explosion and the incredible devastation; a legend which correctly describes the body's north to south direction of descent.

F. Much Larger Asteroid Impact Explosions.

     Meteor Crater is relatively small compared to many impact craters on Earth. The remnants of some older craters are much larger. For example the Chicxulub crater at the Yucatan Peninsula, may be between 80 and 140 miles across, [its size and character are hard to determine since the crater is now buried deep under limestone rock]. The impacting object which made the Chicxulub crater was likely between six to twelve miles across [see Note 3 for more details]. The immediate consequence of the Chicxulub explosion was a thich cloud of dust which covered the Earth in darkness, lasting at least half a year [likely 1-2 years]. Of similar size are two craters nearly a hundred miles across, the Sudbury crater in Ontario, and the Vredefort Ring in South Africa [Ref. 3, p316, Table 10-4]. These craters were likely produced by the impact of objects close to six miles across [Ref. 3, p317, Fig. 10-6] Any of these impacts could really ruin your day.

G. Asteroids are Hard to See.

     Even house sized asteroids can easily cause major destruction because of their high velocity on arriving at the Earth's surface. And even though there could be more than a 100 million such house sized asteroids (Calculation 3), most never come into the inner solar system. Most stay outside the orbit of Mars. And those that come close to Earth are often missed, because they are too faint to be easily discovered, or because they approach us coming from the direction of the Sun, were the Sun's glare prevents us from seeing them.
     With the presently available wide field cameras used for discovering and tracking asteroids, house sized asteroids are too faint to be seen, unless they come very close, about as close as the Moon. But by the time that happens it could be too late to do anything.
     By contrast the largest asteroids are few in number and bright enough so that their orbits can be easily followed. At present none of the larger asteroids (bigger than five miles across) approach close enough to have a likelihood of impacting the Earth. Whew!

H. Big Enough to Kill, Yet Hard to Track.

     Perhaps the greatest danger to Earth is from asteroids that are from about a half a mile to a mile across [a mass of roughly 3 billion tons]. There may be more than 100 thousand such objects out there, with more than a thousand of these threatening the Earth (Ref. 4 p45), each capable of making a crater perhaps 10 miles [16 km] across, and releasing an explosive energy of more than 300,000 Megatons of TNT. [see Calculation 3, and Ref. 3, p209 and p317] These could bring to an end civilization as we know it. Of the asteroids that threaten civilization, only about 400 have been discovered so far (Ref. 4 p45) Thus there may be undetected and untracked more than 600 such civilization threatening, near Earth, asteroids!  [As of November 2000, there were about 128,000 known asteroids, of which only 18,283 asteroids had well determined orbits, Ref. 4 p45]
     To know the paths of Earth threatening bodies with sufficient accuracy, we must observe them on several occasions over several orbits which takes years. That means we must wait until they come near enough to us to be seen, and catch sight of them again on their return for several orbits, before we can know their exact motions. As we wait for these small bodies to come near again, we are at risk, for the next time they could be aimed straight at us, and we wouldn't know the danger in time to do anything.

I. A Small Change In An Orbit Is All It Takes.

     The orbital path of an asteroid or comet can be changed by gravity in an encounter with another small body and/or by the gravity of the planet. But it is is generally difficult or impossible to know exactly how many small gravity pulls and nudges will influence the orbit of a particular small body. Since there are many still undetected small bodies out there, and the orbits of most are unkown, the object of interest may fly near to one of the small bodies we don't even know about. Thus the object of interest may have its orbit changed in an unpredictable way, when it's too far away to be observed. Such holes in our knowledge mean that we are unable to know the precise motions of numerous small bodies. Tracking them involves just too many uncertainties.
     All it takes is a tiny orbital change to put an asteroid or comet on a path to strike the Earth, and it is unlikely that we would know in time.

J. Then There Is The Unknown!

     All these threats to Earth are at least somewhat understood, There may be threats to Earth that are as yet unrecognized, and the importance of such unknown threats can't be evaluated. For example, some physicists have speculated that there might be many small black holes orbiting in our galaxy. These small objects with extremely strong gravity are thought to suck in any thing nearby. If a small black hole were to hit the Earth, it is speculated that it would suck in nearby matter as it sank toward the Earth's center. There, at the Earth's center is would continue sucking in matter and growing stronger, until the entire Earth was consumed.
     Recently an Israeli physicist, Arnon Dar, suggested that there may be neutron stars [a very dense object made mostly of neutrons packed together by strong gravity] in pairs, which spiral toward each other until they merge, becoming a black hole. Dar alleges that the merger of neutron stars releases a very intense focused beam of cosmic rays, which could be a threat even at a distance of a million light years. [Low intensity bursts of gamma rays that may be from such mergers are detected by astronomers about once per day.] If such a focused beam of cosmic rays were to reach Earth, Dar estimates that the resulting dose of ionizing radiation could be a hundred times greater than the dose needed to produce a 50% mortality in humans. Such a dose would be certain death for all humans! [see Note 4 for more details] These threats to Earth may be just the tip of the iceberg, with many others as yet unrecognized or poorly understood, threats which are at present impossible to evaluate. Any of these events could also ruin your day.

     Thus for asteroid and comet orbits, a small change, the tiny deflection of an orbit, results in a large effect [SCRILE], an impact-explosion on planet Earth. All it take is an invisible change at the center of a distant star, and that star could explode, wiping out civilization. Again it would appear that a small change results in a large effect [SCRILE].
     And then there are the poorly understood and uncertain threats, like black holes striking the Earth, and cosmic ray bursts from neutron star mergers. Both the certain threats, and these uncertain threats, show us that the universe is not user friendly, the universe is a dangerous place, and life on Earth is precarious.
     On a cosmic scale, life is very uncertain.

     But then, life is also uncertain on a personal scale. You could walk down the street tomorrow and be struck by lightning. Or you could arrive at an intersection at exactly the right time to be in an auto accident. A fraction of a second could make all the difference between life and death.
     In such instances your survival might depend on something very small, like remembering to wear your seat belt, or foolishly deciding to stand under a tree in the rain.
     Here again, on a personal scale, as on the cosmic scale, it could be that a small change results in a large effect, your death. With these examples, we can see a general principle of the universe: small changes result in large effects [SCRILE].

     Let's look at some other, less dramatic examples of SCRILE.

A. One Word Can Make a Difference.

     If you have ever been in an argument, you probably noticed, that one word can make all the difference, good or bad. A word can heal, or destroy. A word can provoke to deadly wrath, or calm the destructive urge within. Again small changes result in large effects.

B. Unstable Weather.

     Another example is the weather. It is well known that a small change in the cloud cover, the amount of rain, or the temperature here today, can cause a major change in weather on the other side of the world, a few days from now [this is called the butterfly effect]. Government agencies have spent many millions of dollars on supercomputers, on computer software, on precision data gathering all trying to make accurate long range predictions of the weather. But their predictions are only useful for a few days, because very small changes in the weather here and now result in major effects on the behavior of entire weather systems.

C. Lightning Guided by Cosmic Rays.

     It is now known that lightning, when it strikes, generally travels between earth and cloud along a zig-zag path, where the air molecules have been split into electrons and ions [ionized] by cosmic rays from outer space. Cosmic ray particles hitting the atmosphere, knock electrons off of air atoms, and the electrons then hop onto other air molecules. So the air molecules for a short time are electrically charged, and so by this means the air is able to carry electricity. And when the lightning is seeking the path of least resistance through the air, it follows that path cut by the cosmic rays.
     The cosmic ray path is influenced by the Earth's magnetic field, which is constantly changing, by very tiny microscopic differences in the positions of atoms at the top of the atmosphere, and by other very tiny things. So these many tiny unknown things affect the cosmic rays, and the cosmic rays guide the lightning. Again, many small invisible changes result in large and visible effects [SCRILE].

     In our discussions so far we have looked at the universe as if it runs on natural law only. But maybe it doesn't. Perhaps, as we have seen in INFINITY #2, and INFINITY #4, there is a God out there.

A. Consider the God Possibility.

     If there is a God, then we should include God in our discussion. For we have seen that small changes result in large effects [SCRILE]. We have seen the instability of events in the universe. It may well be that God knows the details of the universe [INFINITY #5] and God may be involved in the process. So let's think about what could be going on.
     It could be that in all these instances, we are seeing the Hand of God acting, by making very small changes, changes which are too small to see. If God possesses totally detailed knowledge, then God could easily give a small nudge at exactly the right place and exactly the right time, and produce a very large effect. By this means [SCRILE], God could be in charge of the universe, without the need for visible miracles.

B. Some Notable Examples

     The SCRILE principle also appears in a variety of instances in the Holy Bible. For example the Holy Bible tells us that when God wanted to deliver Israel from bondage in Egypt, a large effect, He started with a baby, named Moses, a small change. And He chose to deliver man from sin and rebellion also by starting with a baby, named Jesus. So in these instances small changes result in large effects [SCRILE].

     In most of our reasoning for INFINITY we have dealt with ideas that are logical, testable, and verifiable. But some things can be known with certainty only from personal experience. So I hope you will seek out for yourself the truth of what follows, in your own personal experiences.

A. The Traffic Signal.

     When I [Dr. Harris] was a graduate student at the University of Arizona, at Tucson [before I came to serve God], I was very curious about many things. I had recognized the hand of God in the glory of the heavens, and the design of things on Earth, particularly living things. But that was just the big picture. One question kept coming back to my mind. I wanted to know if God is involved in the details, if God is involved in the lives of people. So, in late 1975, even though I didn't really know God, I asked God, "are you managing the details?," and soon God showed me.
     A few weeks later, I had the urge to start eating better. [At the time I was living alone and "cooking" for myself.] So it became my habit to step out of my humble apartment on Park avenue, and walk several blocks south, to Broadway, to get a decent meal at a restaurant there. At that intersection, there was a traffic light. For weeks, I arrived at that intersection, just at the exact instant that the traffic light changed from red to green for me. Each time I left my apartment I had no idea when the light would change. I couldn't even see that signal from my apartment. And I determined [after this happened the first time] that I wouldn't even look at the signal as I walked my normal pace to the intersection. And time after time, for weeks, the light changed to green, at the very instant my foot hit the crosswalk.

B. A Very Improbable Series.

     Considering that the traffic signal went through a complete cycle about every 90 seconds, and the signal changed to green within less than a second [at most 1/3 sec] of the time that my foot touched the street; that is conservatively a 1 in 90 chance [actually a 1 in 270], each time that the signal changed exactly on time. But this happened every time I arrived at the intersection, for weeks, about twenty times in all. [see Calculation 4] Thus the probability of this series happening by pure chance is about one chance in 10³⁹. That is equivalent to flipping a fair coin, and getting 130 heads in a row. By this means, God convinced me personally that the details are indeed in His hands. And He showed me that there are no chance events! And since that time, I have realized that His hand has been upon me for protection in many improbable circumstances, even before I began to serve Him.

C. Near Fatal Auto Accidents.

     For example, when I [Dr. Harris] was very young, perhaps three or four years old, I was nearly run over by a car. My mother and I were crossing the street in front of our house, to visit a neighbor. I ran ahead, and I ran into the side of a car traveling about twenty miles an hour. I bounced off the side of the car and fell back into the street. A fraction of a second earlier or later and I would have been run over.
     When I was living in Tucson, taking graduate courses in astronomy, [late in 1966] I was night assistant on the 61" telescope at Mt. Lemon, operated by the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory of the University of Arizona. It was the practice of the night assistants and observers to travel to and from the observatory using a university car. At about 2:30 a.m., we were driving west on Speedway on our way back from the observatory to the university. Speeding toward us there came a sports car, a Corvette driven by a drunk, which came cross the double yellow line. He nearly hit us head on. Our university car was being driven by Dennis Millon, I was seated in the right rear, behind Steve Larson. Dennis swerved to the right, and our car was hit in the middle, on the driver's side. Suddenly our car was on two wheels. Dennis was no stunt driver, but we were up on two wheels for about 150 yards. If our car had rolled, I would have been crushed on the under side, but our car went back down on all four wheels, crossing over all four lanes of the street, and heading opposite to our original direction of travel. It was more than fortunate, 1) that the crushing of the fiberglass body of the Corvette absorbed much of the impact, and 2) that there were no other cars around for us to run into as we crossed all four lanes of the road, and 3) that Dennis Millon steered the car like a stunt driver, even without knowing how he did it. Here again, small things made all the difference, for I'm sure the Lord was there, guiding Dennis as he drove on two wheels.

D. Other Very Improbable Events.

     One day, as it rained heavily on the mall at the University of Arizona, I was walking from the cafeteria east toward the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, where I worked. There was a lot of lightning in the distance, but none nearby, so I felt safe, and so I was walking with my umbrella up, as I braced against a strong wind and rain coming from the east. As I neared the steps of the laboratory, lightning struck a light standard across the street, about fifty feet away, and at exactly that same instant, a spark jumped the two inches from my thumb to the shaft of the umbrella. That was close. A small difference in the cosmic rays which guided the lightning and I would have been toast. Here again small changes result in large effects.

     I have experienced numerous other events which have shown me that God uses the very little things to be in charge of everything. He doesn't need to do big miracles to be in charge. Because God is the creator [see INFINITY #2], and God made the rules governing the universe, God can be in charge as He pleases. And because God is the good and loving creator [see INFINITY #6], God chooses involvement, God is in charge, not leaving anything to chance [see INFINITY #5].
     If you question this deduction, I suggest that you, in silent prayer, with no one else knowing, ask the one true God to give you wisdom regarding these questions, and I suggest that you wait on God to show you the truth. He may not do it with a traffic signal, or an auto accident, but if you sincerely ask God to reveal truth to you, He will answer your prayer! [As He tells us in James 1:5]

     Every farmer understands the Law of the Harvest: put one small seed in the ground, and you get an entire plant with many seeds. Small changes result in large effects [SCRILE]. This is God's way; in the universe, and in the lives of people. By making very small changes, that are invisible to us, God can and does produce very large effects. And since God knows the consequences of every tiny action, God can rule invisibly like the rider of a Lipizzaner. By this means, God is truly in charge without being obvious or intrusive. In this way the universe is the Garden of God.

     Because God's influence is subtle, it is easily ignored by those that prefer not to receive the revelation of His reality. These may be willing to see God only when He does great acts, like the parting of the Red Sea; but they easily miss His everyday miracles, like the changing of lives, or the removing of tumors. Those who say, "no one can know the future", or "God is not involved," or "God doesn't care," have not yet received the wisdom of this mighty and caring God; they don't know the one true God, who holds our future in His hands.

     God will not intrude in your life. But God loves you, and God knows what is best, and so God knows that He can do better guiding your life, than you can do guiding your own. Therefore, God wants to be involved in your life for your benefit. God wants to be a blessing to you. God wants a relationship with you.
     Indeed, the Holy Bible tells us in Romans 8:28, "All things (do) work together for good to them that love God." Even the little things, work for good to them that believe.
     The Apostle Paul tells us, in Galatians 6:7-9: "Whatsoever a man sows, that shall he also reap. For he that sows to his flesh [that is, to benefit self], shall of the flesh reap corruption [that is, death and decay]; but he that sows to the Spirit [that is, yielding to the Holy Spirit] shall of the Spirit reap everlasting life. ... Let us not weary in well doing: for in due season we shall reap, if we faint not."

     So! If you have not yet made Jesus, the creator, and the author of the Holy Bible, your Lord and your Savior, Now is the time! He wants you to openly receive this miraculous blessing.

[link to salv page]

Note 1, For general catalogues of supernovae, see

www.nrl.navy.mil/7212/montes/sne.html#CAT

and for the recent supernova rate data see

www.ggw.org/asras/snimages/

Note 2, For images and more details on SN1987a see

http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/lib/aptree.html

see particularly photos and explanations for the dates

June 21, 1995, July 5, 1996, Feb. 17, 1998, Feb. 9, 1999,

and Feb. 6, 2000.

Calculation 1.
     With a supernova rate of approximately 2 supernovae/century/2 x 10⁹ stars in our galaxy. That gives a rate of 1 supernova/10¹¹ years/star, over the long run of time, as the Sun orbits through our Milky Ways Galaxy. With, at present, an estimated 5 thousand stars closer than the potentially lethal distance [of 50 light years] of a supernova from Earth, then we multiply these numbers to get the lethal event rate. [Of course we can't say whether the Sun is presently in a region with an average star density, typical of the star density seen over an entire time taken by the Sun to go around the galaxy.] The result is a lethal supernova event about every twenty million years on average.

Calculation 2.
      The graph on p317 of Ref. 2, Fig. 10-6, presents the relationship between impacting object's mass, impact speed and crater size - impact energy. The Meteor Crater event is shown with a crater just less than a mile across and with an energy of about 4 x 10¹⁶ Joules or (with 1 Megaton of TNT = 4.2 x 10¹⁵ Joules) about 10 Megatons of TNT. The Meteor Crater impactor had an estimated mass of roughly 5 x 10⁸ kg. Similarly a half mile to one mile diameter asteroid with a mass of about 3 x 10¹² kg and an assumed impact velocity of 30 km/sec gives an impact energy release of about 10²¹ Joules or about 300,000 Megatons of TNT equivalent. Looking to the left edge of the Fig. 10-6, the estimated crater diameter for such an impact is a little over 16 km, or about 10 miles across.

Calculation 3.
      The graph on p209 of Ref. 2, Fig. 7-8, presents the estimated number of asteroids larger than a particular mass or diameter. For each factor of ten decrease an impactor's mass, we find a factor of 6 increase in the number of asteroids of that size or larger. Extending the solid line upwards to the left off the graph, we estimate the number of asteroids with a mass near to or greater than the house sized object [about 3 x 10⁸kg] that blasted Meteor Crater in Arizona. The total number of asteroid larger than this about one billion. The number of such house sized objects is thus perhaps 100 million. Likewise, using the same curve to estimate the number of asteroids with a mass of about 3 billion tons gives an estimate of about one million asteroids of this size or larger which are thus capable of destroying life on planet Earth. The number close to this size may be only about 100 thousand.

Calculation 4.
     If the traffic signal changed in 1/3 sec, out of a total cycle time of 90 seconds, then that is a chance of 1/270, each time it happens. If such an unlikely event happens 20 times, then the total probability is (1/270)(1/270).... twenty times, all multiplied together, or a total probability of about 1/4.2 x 10⁴⁸. If we are very generous and say that the coincidence is just a 1/90 chance, and it happens 20 times in a row, then we have a chance of (1/90)(1/90)... twenty times, all multiplied together, or a total probability of about 1/1.2 x 10³⁹. This number is the same chance as (1/2)(1/2).... 130 times, the chance of throwing heads 130 times in a row, or throwing tails 130 times in a row, for a fair coin.

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